🔗 Share this article

Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.